Topic: “Quit F’ing Guessing: Using Math and Behavioral Economics to Win the Battle of Ideas”
This will be a live blog type of entry. I’ll be making notes on what JD is talking about and hitting update from time to time. Refresh every few minutes to get more notes. I’m getting a bit of a late start so I’m just picking up where JD is now.
What is news? JD is using a lot of political leanings to make his points. Conservatives more likely to accept world as it is, but have their own set of “shoulds”. Liberals less liekly to accept world as it is.
Earned Media: To launch ideas use small markets. Small media is less likely to bring opposition into sotry. Cheap GRPs, lends level of credibility to issue.
Risk/Loss Aversion: Peoples will take risks to avoid a certain loss. A loss has a greater psychological effect than a gain, fear losses more than value gains. Humans value what they have, and the less they have the more they value it. Find what target audience values and sell the loss. National Healthcare is unpopulare because people with insurance know what they have, they put a value on it, and charge represents a loss. The loss of currently insured people is felt far more.
Now talking about astroturfing. It works to create an informational cascade. The news media covering and event doesn’t know people were hired to attend an event. It appears there are tons of folks there and then gives a bit of credibility. Now, in my eyes, astroturfing can backfire if the media finds out.
Issues move (go viral) if the target believes and cares about your issue. Has to have credibility as well. The more intense belief a target holds, the more viral your message.
Heuristics example: Sit back for a moment, image the Taliban regaining control of Afghanistan. They have billions of dollars from illegal opium, a safe-haven to train, plan, and conduct business ,and increased stature in Islam because they defeated the West. How likely will another 9/11 be? The more you think about the statement, the more you think it could happen. However, mathematics will tell you that the likelihood of the question coming true decreases because of the requirement of each statement to actually happen.
Testing methods: TV & radio ads have most affect. Other methods are online panel surveys starting at about $2,000. These are good for national outreach to get a feeling about a potential issue. Also interactive voice response (press 1 to agree with this statement, 2 to disagree) with getting phone numbers from services or state/county. 10,000 number is the best base to start with.
JD uses the follow to build an ad: from voter registration list create sample. Poll three cheap media markets to get base line. Run potential ads in two marks. Poll the three markets again, which ad “won”. Cross tab results according to demographics, compare back with voter reg list, voter likelihood, etc. Use mapping with demo information to see what demographic the ad works best with, regional target. Repeat until he has a line up of ads that he knows works and he isn’t guessing before election time.
Now, all the above can be used in milblogging as well. Most of this is pretty much based on political campaigns, but we as milbloggers can drive traffic to our sites by looking at national polls and then writing about issues that are polling well. An example would be the economy is going to be the number one issue this November. How does the economy affect the military? We will face budget cuts, personnel cuts, etc. Many of the milblogs are covering these topics now. By taking advantage of SEO, internet searches on the economy will also point to our posts about how the economy affects the military. SEO will be covered in the next panel.